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2024-12-13 11:51:46

The forecast of the European Central Bank assumes that the oil price will be $81.8 per barrel in 2024, $71.8 per barrel in 2025, $70.1 per barrel in 2026 and $69.2 per barrel in 2027.Analysts commented on the ECB's interest rate cut, and Christiansen, an analyst at Danske Bank, said that the restrictive hawkish tendency in the ECB's policy has been eliminated. However, there is no indication that the bank may cut interest rates sharply, and there is no indication that the terminal interest rate will fall. Carsten Brzeski, head of international macro business in the Netherlands, said that the European Central Bank decided to play it safe today and cut interest rates by 25 basis points. No more mention of "restrictive" monetary policy, which means there will be more interest rate cuts in the future. Analyst Randow said that the change in the wording of the European Central Bank indicates that the ECB Committee has discussed the neutral interest rate. Otherwise, how can they decide what is restrictive and what is lenient? I am curious about what Lagarde will say next. Vassilis, a foreign exchange strategist, said that the euro fell to a new low because the European Central Bank gave up the "restrictive policy" part of the statement, but this does not mean that the policy language is completely dovish. Bonds in the euro zone are in a moderate trend.Analysis: The initial application data in the United States unexpectedly rose, and the number of initial jobless claims in the United States unexpectedly rose last week. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits continued to increase at the end of November compared with the beginning of the year, due to the cooling of labor demand. The US Department of Labor announced on Thursday that as of the week of December 7, the number of initial jobless claims increased by 17,000 to 242,000 after seasonal adjustment. Economists had expected that the number of initial jobless claims last week was only 220,000. The jump in initial jobless claims last week may reflect the fluctuation after the Thanksgiving holiday, but it may not mark a sudden change in the job market. The number of initial jobless claims may still fluctuate in the next few weeks, which may make it difficult to understand the job market clearly.


The European Central Bank expects inflation to cool down faster. It is reported that the European Central Bank now expects inflation to cool down slightly faster than the forecast in September. It currently predicts that the average inflation rate in 2024 and 2025 will be 2.4% and 2.1% respectively, compared with the previous forecast of 2.5% and 2.2% respectively. In the statement, the European Central Bank also said: "The anti-inflation process is on the right track."Analysis: The initial application data in the United States unexpectedly rose, and the number of initial jobless claims in the United States unexpectedly rose last week. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits continued to increase at the end of November compared with the beginning of the year, due to the cooling of labor demand. The US Department of Labor announced on Thursday that as of the week of December 7, the number of initial jobless claims increased by 17,000 to 242,000 after seasonal adjustment. Economists had expected that the number of initial jobless claims last week was only 220,000. The jump in initial jobless claims last week may reflect the fluctuation after the Thanksgiving holiday, but it may not mark a sudden change in the job market. The number of initial jobless claims may still fluctuate in the next few weeks, which may make it difficult to understand the job market clearly.Trump reiterates tax cuts.


The concept of cryptocurrency in US stocks strengthened collectively at the beginning of the session, with Hut 8 and Riot Platforms rising by more than 8%, Bitdeer rising by more than 6%, TeraWulf and CleanSpark rising by more than 3%. In the news, US President-elect Trump announced that he would do some great things in the field of cryptocurrency.Apple's iOS 18.2 integrates ChatGPT or helps the future sales of iPhone 17. Citigroup maintains a "buy" rating. Citibank pointed out that the iOS 18.2 update released by Apple basically meets expectations and predicts that there will be more highlights in future updates. In the detailed analysis, Atif Malik, an analyst at Citigroup, said that some basic functions of Siri in the latest system version have been taken over by ChatGPT, but this did not affect his view on the phased introduction of Apple Intelligence functions. He thought that this strategy would not significantly change the difference between the update cycle of iPhone 16/17 and the previous cycle. Malik maintains a "Buy" rating on Apple and a target price of $255. For the future, Malik is optimistic about the update of iPhone 17, and predicts that Apple will achieve 227 million units, 246 million units and 253 million units in 2024, 2025 and 2026 respectively.Adobe(ADBE.O) fell by 12%, the biggest one-day drop since March 15th.

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